The demography of native and non - native plant species 3 in mountain systems : examples in the Greater Yellowstone 4 Ecosystem 5

9 Abstract In mountainous areas, native and non-native 10 plants will be exposed to climate change and increased 11 disturbance in the future. Non-native plants may be more 12 successful than natives in disturbed areas and thus be able 13 to respond quicker to shifting climatic zones. In 2009, 14 monitoring plots were established for populations of a non15 native species (Linaria dalmatica) and a closely related 16 native species (Castilleja miniata) on an elevation gradient 17 in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Population 18 data were collected twice during the growing season for 19 3 years and used to calculate population vital rates for both 20 species, and to construct population dynamics models for 21 L. dalmatica. Linaria dalmatica vital rates were more 22 associated with climatic/environmental factors than those 23 of C. miniata. Population dynamics models for L. dalm24 atica showed no trend in population growth rate (k) vs. 25 elevation. The highest k corresponded with the lowest 26 vegetation and litter cover, and the highest bare ground 27 cover. All populations with k\ 1 corresponded with the 28 lowest measured winter minimum temperature. There was 29 a negative association between k and number of weeks of 30 adequate soil moisture, and a weak positive association 31 between k and mean winter minimum temperature. 32 Variance in vital rates and k of L. dalmatica suggest broad 33 adaptation within its current range, with the potential to 34 spread further with or without future changes in climate. 35 There is evidence that k is negatively affected by persistent 36 soil moisture which promotes the growth of other plant 37 species, suggesting that it might expand further if other 38 species were removed by disturbance. 39 40